Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NV-02 ]

Nevada's 2nd District

Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D)vsDavid Flippo (R)

open seat · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Mark Amodei (R), not running

7 in 10

David Flippo favored69%

Likely for David Flippo: a 69 percent chance of winning. Polls: David Flippo up 4.2.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Mark Amodei (R), not running
  • District:2 of 4 in Nevada
  • Odds:Flippo 69%
  • Margin:Flippo +3.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Flippo +4.2
  • Latest poll:GBAO, Sep 03, Benitez-Thompson +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Flippo +3.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Flippo +3.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Flippo +9.1 to Benitez-Thompson +3.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Flippo +4.2 across 3 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Flippo +2.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Benitez-Thompson ahead is positive, Flippo ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • GBAOBenitez-Thompson +1
    Sep 03 · B/C · 500 LV38 to 37 · 67% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flippo +2.5
  • Strategies 360Flippo +3
    Aug 26 · B/C · 400 LV42 to 45 · 33% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flippo +7.5
  • Wedgewood PollsBenitez-Thompson +2
    Jul 12 · unrated · 350 LV48 to 46 · 0% weight

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mark Amodei (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs David Flippo (R)
Last time
2024: Mark Amodei (R) took 55.0 with no Democrat on the ballot.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.6, Harris 47.5. Trump by 3.1.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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