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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NV-03 ]

Nevada's 3rd District

Susie Lee (D)vsMartin O'Donnell (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: Susie Lee (D)

9 in 10

Susie Lee favored99%

All but certain for Susie Lee: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+1
  • Incumbent:Susie Lee (D)
  • District:3 of 4 in Nevada
  • Odds:Lee 99%
  • Margin:Lee +16.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lee +16.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lee +16.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lee +8.5 to Lee +24.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lee +16.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lee ahead is positive, O'Donnell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+1, worth 1.7 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Susie Lee, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lee +16.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Susie Lee (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Susie Lee (D, incumbent) vs Martin O'Donnell (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.4, Republican 48.6. Lee by 2.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.6, Harris 47.5. Trump by 3.1.
Lean
D+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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