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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WV-02 ]

West Virginia's 2nd District

Ace Parsi (D)vsRiley Moore (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+20 · Incumbent: Riley Moore (R)

99 in 100

Riley Moore favored>99%

All but certain for Riley Moore: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+20
  • Incumbent:Riley Moore (R)
  • District:2 of 2 in West Virginia
  • Odds:Moore >99%
  • Margin:Moore +29.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moore +29.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moore +29.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moore +37.5 to Moore +21.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Moore +29.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Parsi ahead is positive, Moore ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+20, worth 34.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Riley Moore, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Moore +29.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Riley Moore (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ace Parsi (D) vs Riley Moore (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 29.2, Republican 70.8. Moore by 41.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 70.0, Harris 28.1. Trump by 41.9.
Lean
R+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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