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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WV-01 ]

West Virginia's 1st District

Vince George (D)vsCarol Miller (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+22 · Incumbent: Carol Miller (R)

99 in 100

Carol Miller favored>99%

All but certain for Carol Miller: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+22
  • Incumbent:Carol Miller (R)
  • District:1 of 2 in West Virginia
  • Odds:Miller >99%
  • Margin:Miller +33.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Miller +33.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Miller +33.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Miller +41.0 to Miller +25.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Miller +33.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: George ahead is positive, Miller ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+22, worth 38.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Carol Miller, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Miller +33.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Carol Miller (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Vince George (D) vs Carol Miller (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 24.2, Republican 66.4. Miller by 42.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 70.0, Harris 28.1. Trump by 41.9.
Lean
R+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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