Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // WY-01 ]

Wyoming at large

Lisa Kinney (D)vsChuck Gray (R)

open seat · Lean: R+23 · Incumbent: Harriet Hageman (R), not running

99 in 100

Chuck Gray favored>99%

All but certain for Chuck Gray: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+23
  • Incumbent:Harriet Hageman (R), not running
  • Odds:Gray >99%
  • Margin:Gray +30.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gray +30.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gray +30.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gray +38.0 to Gray +22.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gray +30.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kinney ahead is positive, Gray ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+23, worth 40.0 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gray +30.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Harriet Hageman (R) is running for Senate instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Lisa Kinney (D) vs Chuck Gray (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 23.4, Republican 71.0. Hageman by 47.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 71.6, Harris 25.8. Trump by 45.8.
Lean
R+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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