T-minus 16 days
● Senate // Race file
[ Senate // Rhode Island ]
Rhode Island
Jack Reed (D)vsRaymond McKay (R)
incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D
99 in 100
Jack Reed favored>99%
All but certain for Jack Reed: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jack Reed up 35.3.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Cook:Solid D
- Sabato:Safe D
- Inside Elections:Solid D
- Odds:Reed >99%
- Margin:Reed +33.8, give or take 5.1
- Polls:5, averaging Reed +35.3
- Latest poll:Emerson College, Oct 11, Reed +33.7
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Reed +33.8
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Reed +33.8
- Uncertainty
- 5.1 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Reed +27.3 to Reed +40.3 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Reed +35.3 across 5 polls, worth 0.8 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Reed +32.4 before any polls, give or take 7.0
How polls have done here
8 Senate races here since 2000: the final polls missed by 6.1 points on average, on balance underrating Republicans. Last time, 2024, they were off by 6.0 toward Republicans.
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Reed ahead is positive, McKay ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 5 public polls
- Emerson CollegeReed +33.7Oct 11 · A · 800 LV59 to 25 · 93% weightadjusted Reed +36.2
- University of New HampshireReed +20Sep 21 · B- · 595 LV53 to 33 · 6% weightadjusted Reed +23.0
- University of New HampshireReed +20Aug 24 · B- · 722 LV51 to 31 · 1% weightadjusted Reed +23.0
- University of New HampshireReed +17Jun 23 · B- · 627 LV52 to 35 · 0% weightadjusted Reed +20.0
- University of New HampshireReed +18Apr 20 · B- · 556 LV52 to 34 · 0% weightadjusted Reed +21.0
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | A | Oct 11 | 800LV | Reed +33.759 to 25adjusted Reed +36.2 | 93% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Sep 21 | 595LV | Reed +2053 to 33adjusted Reed +23.0 | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Aug 24 | 722LV | Reed +2051 to 31adjusted Reed +23.0 | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Jun 23 | 627LV | Reed +1752 to 35adjusted Reed +20.0 | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | B- | Apr 20 | 556LV | Reed +1852 to 34adjusted Reed +21.0 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Jack Reed (D), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Jack Reed (D, incumbent) vs Raymond McKay (R)
- Last time
- 2020: Jack Reed (D) 66.6, Allen Waters (R) 33.4. Reed by 33.2.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 55.5. Harris by 13.8.
- The raters
- Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Jack Reed
Reed on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Raymond McKay
McKay on Ballotpedia ↗