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Live results Nov 3 · 3 days

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● Governor // Race file

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[ Governor // Michigan ]

Michigan governor

Jocelyn Benson (D)vsJohn James (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

Democrat

Republican

94 in 100

Jocelyn Benson favored94%

Latest pollCNN/SSRS, Oct 27: Benson 53, James 41All 45 polls ▸

Very likely for Jocelyn Benson: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jocelyn Benson up 8.3.

  • Margin:Benson +8.4, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:45, averaging Benson +8.3
  • Latest poll:CNN/SSRS, Oct 27, Benson +12.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.3

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Benson +8.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points, counting a miss the whole country could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Benson +8.4
Uncertainty
give or take 5.4 points: 4.0 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share
Eight times in ten
Benson +1.5 to Benson +15.3
Poll average
Benson +8.3 across 45 polls, about as much information as 5 fresh polls
Starting point
Benson +11.7 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Benson ahead is positive, James ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // Loading

Reading the history

▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss

The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.

No extra polling error

Repeat a real miss
◀ Polls too kind to DemocratsPolls too kind to Republicans ▶

Benson 94 in 100

margin Benson +8.4

Dead on: this is the published number.

Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.

▸ Polls // 45 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R). Also on the ballot: Donna Brandenburg, Douglas Campbell, Anthony Hudson
Last time
2022: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 54.5, Tudor Dixon (R) 43.9. Whitmer by 10.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Likely D · Inside Elections Lean D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

▸ More from Michigan // Same ballot

Counting

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