Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 14 days

◀ Back to the map

● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Oklahoma ]

Oklahoma governor

Cyndi Munson (D)vsMike Mazzei (R)

open seat · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Likely R

8 in 10

Mike Mazzei favored84%

Likely for Mike Mazzei: a 84 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Mazzei up 7.0.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Mazzei 84%
  • Margin:Mazzei +8.0, give or take 7.1
  • Polls:1, averaging Mazzei +7.0
  • Latest poll:Workbench Strategy, Oct 13, Mazzei +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:14 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mazzei +8.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mazzei +8.0
Uncertainty
7.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mazzei +17.1 to Munson +1.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Mazzei +7.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Mazzei +19.1 before any polls, give or take 24.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Munson ahead is positive, Mazzei ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Workbench StrategyMazzei +4
    Oct 13 · unrated · 600 LV45 to 49 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Mazzei +7.0

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // State filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kevin Stitt (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Cyndi Munson (D) vs Mike Mazzei (R). Also on the ballot: Robert Brooks Sr., Orlando Bush, Jerry Griffin
Last time
2022: Kevin Stitt (R) 55.4, Joy Hofmeister (D) 41.8. Stitt by 13.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the map