Live results here election night Nov 3 · 5 days
● Governor // Race file
[ Governor // Wisconsin ]
Wisconsin governor
David Crowley (D)vsTom Tiffany (R)
open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup
Democrat
Republican
83 in 100
David Crowley favored83%
Likely for David Crowley: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: David Crowley up 5.8.
- Margin:Crowley +6.0, give or take 6.4
- Polls:11, averaging Crowley +5.8
- Latest poll:Wick, Oct 23, Crowley +3.1
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Crowley +6.0
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.4 points, counting a miss the whole country could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Crowley +6.0
- Uncertainty
- give or take 6.4 points: 5.3 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share
- Eight times in ten
- Tiffany +2.2 to Crowley +14.2
- Poll average
- Crowley +5.8 across 11 polls, about as much information as 2 fresh polls
- Starting point
- Crowley +10.3 before any polls, give or take 24.0
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Crowley ahead is positive, Tiffany ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Crowley 83 in 100
margin Crowley +6.0
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // 11 public polls
- WickCrowley +3.1Oct 23 · B/C · 1,213 LV48 to 45 · 28% weightRepublican sponsoradjusted Crowley +7.4
- Marquette University Law SchoolCrowley +7Oct 22 · A/B · 668 LV53 to 46 · 37% weightadjusted Crowley +6.8
- YouGovCrowley +4Oct 09 · B · 1,715 RV46 to 42 · 26% weightPartisan sponsoradjusted Crowley +3.8
- Z to A ResearchCrowley +5Oct 01 · unrated · 662 LV49 to 44 · 4% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Crowley +3.3
- Marquette University Law SchoolCrowley +3Sep 23 · A/B · 692 LV49 to 46 · 5% weightadjusted Crowley +2.8
- Marquette University Law SchoolCrowley +5Aug 20 · A/B · 738 LV49 to 44 · 1% weightadjusted Crowley +4.8
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WickRepublican sponsor | B/C | Oct 23 | 1,213LV | Crowley +3.148 to 45adjusted Crowley +7.4 | 28% |
| Marquette University Law School | A/B | Oct 22 | 668LV | Crowley +753 to 46adjusted Crowley +6.8 | 37% |
| YouGovPartisan sponsor | B | Oct 09 | 1,715RV | Crowley +446 to 42adjusted Crowley +3.8 | 26% |
| Z to A ResearchDemocratic sponsor | unrated | Oct 01 | 662LV | Crowley +549 to 44adjusted Crowley +3.3 | 4% |
| Marquette University Law School | A/B | Sep 23 | 692LV | Crowley +349 to 46adjusted Crowley +2.8 | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School | A/B | Aug 20 | 738LV | Crowley +549 to 44adjusted Crowley +4.8 | 1% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
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▸ Campaign money // State filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Tony Evers (D) is retiring. Open seat.
- On the ballot
- David Crowley (D) vs Tom Tiffany (R)
- Last time
- 2022: Tony Evers (D) 51.2, Tim Michels (R) 47.8. Evers by 3.4.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ The rules // Governors
Senate rules, one wider margin of error
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. Since 19 October the starting guess carries a margin of error twice the Senate's, and three times where the race has polls, so the polls get most of the say. A backtest on 289 past governor races set those two widths; everything else comes from the Senate backtest. The rules on the math page.
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
David CrowleyDavid Crowley grew up on Milwaukee’s North Side, and his family experienced homelessness.
Republican
Tom TiffanyTom Tiffany and his wife, Chris, once ran an excursion boat business in northern Wisconsin.
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