Connecticut governor

Ned Lamont (D)vsRyan Fazio (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Ned Lamont favored>99%

All but certain for Ned Lamont: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Ned Lamont up 18.1.

Office:Incumbent running
Cook:Solid D
Sabato:Safe D
Inside Elections:Solid D
Odds:Lamont >99%
Margin:Lamont +20.9, give or take 4.3
Polls:10, averaging Lamont +18.1
Latest poll:Quinnipiac University, Oct 12, Lamont +20.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lamont +20.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.3 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Lamont +20.9
Uncertainty: 4.3 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Lamont +15.4 to Lamont +26.4 (80 percent)
Poll average: Lamont +18.1 across 10 polls, worth 2.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Lamont +25.6 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lamont ahead is positive, Fazio ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 10 public polls

Quinnipiac UniversityLamont +20
Oct 12 · B+ · 1,225 LV58 to 38 · 29% weight
adjusted Lamont +20.7
Emerson CollegeLamont +13.6
Oct 12 · A · 800 LV51 to 38 · 40% weight
adjusted Lamont +15.5
YouGovLamont +23.1
Oct 07 · B57 to 34 · 16% weight
adjusted Lamont +22.9
University of New HampshireLamont +17
Sep 21 · B- · 540 LV55 to 38 · 3% weight
adjusted Lamont +17.7
co/efficientLamont +7
Sep 17 · B · 979 LV48 to 41 · 5% weight
adjusted Lamont +10.0
Quinnipiac UniversityLamont +17
Sep 14 · B+ · 1,288 LV55 to 38 · 4% weight
adjusted Lamont +17.7
GreatBlue ResearchLamont +15.7
Sep 08 · B/C · 1,000 RV52 to 37 · 2% weight
University of New HampshireLamont +15
Aug 24 · B- · 803 LV52 to 37 · <1% weight
adjusted Lamont +15.7
GreatBlue ResearchLamont +22.1
Jul 26 · B/C55 to 33 · 0% weight
University of New HampshireLamont +13
Jun 23 · B- · 821 LV49 to 36 · 0% weight
adjusted Lamont +13.7

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Quinnipiac University	B+	Oct 12	1,225LV	Lamont +2058 to 38adjusted Lamont +20.7	29%
Emerson College	A	Oct 12	800LV	Lamont +13.651 to 38adjusted Lamont +15.5	40%
YouGov	B	Oct 07	n/aLV	Lamont +23.157 to 34adjusted Lamont +22.9	16%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sep 21	540LV	Lamont +1755 to 38adjusted Lamont +17.7	3%
co/efficient	B	Sep 17	979LV	Lamont +748 to 41adjusted Lamont +10.0	5%
Quinnipiac University	B+	Sep 14	1,288LV	Lamont +1755 to 38adjusted Lamont +17.7	4%
GreatBlue Research	B/C	Sep 08	1,000RV	Lamont +15.752 to 37	2%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Aug 24	803LV	Lamont +1552 to 37adjusted Lamont +15.7	<1%
GreatBlue Research	B/C	Jul 26	n/aLV	Lamont +22.155 to 33	0%
University of New Hampshire	B-	Jun 23	821LV	Lamont +1349 to 36adjusted Lamont +13.7	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Ned Lamont (D), running for another term.
On the ballot: Ned Lamont (D, incumbent) vs Ryan Fazio (R)
Last time: 2022: Ned Lamont (D) 56.0, Bob Stefanowski (R) 43.1. Lamont by 12.9.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 41.9, Harris 56.4. Harris by 14.5.
The raters: Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Ned Lamont
Lamont on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Ryan Fazio
Fazio on Ballotpedia ↗

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