Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Hawaii ]

Hawaii governor

Josh Green (D)vsGary Cordery (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Josh Green favored>99%

All but certain for Josh Green: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Green >99%
  • Margin:Green +36.6, give or take 7.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Green +36.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 7.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Green +36.6
Uncertainty
7.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Green +27.6 to Green +45.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Green +36.6 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Green ahead is positive, Cordery ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Green +36.6: the state's partisan lean, the incumbent (Josh Green, running again, worth 3.0 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 7.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Josh Green (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Josh Green (D, incumbent) vs Gary Cordery (R)
Last time
2022: Josh Green (D) 63.2, Duke Aiona (R) 36.8. Green by 26.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 37.5, Harris 60.6. Harris by 23.1.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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