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T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Massachusetts ]

Massachusetts governor

Maura Healey (D)vsMike Minogue (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Maura Healey favored>99%

All but certain for Maura Healey: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Maura Healey up 21.1.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Healey >99%
  • Margin:Healey +30.6, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:10, averaging Healey +21.1
  • Latest poll:MassINC Polling Group, Sep 22, Healey +22.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Healey +30.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Healey +30.6
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Healey +24.1 to Healey +37.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Healey +21.1 across 10 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Healey +39.0 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Healey ahead is positive, Minogue ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 10 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Maura Healey (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Maura Healey (D, incumbent) vs Mike Minogue (R). Also on the ballot: Andrea James
Last time
2022: Maura Healey (D) 63.7, Geoff Diehl (R) 34.6. Healey by 29.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 36.0, Harris 61.2. Harris by 25.2.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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