Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Maryland ]

Maryland governor

Wes Moore (D)vsDan Cox (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Solid D

99 in 100

Wes Moore favored>99%

All but certain for Wes Moore: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Wes Moore up 27.0.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Solid D
  • Odds:Moore >99%
  • Margin:Moore +35.1, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:2, averaging Moore +27.0
  • Latest poll:UMBC Institute of Politics, Sep 27, Moore +27.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moore +35.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moore +35.1
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moore +28.6 to Moore +41.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Moore +27.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Moore +42.3 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Moore ahead is positive, Cox ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Wes Moore (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Wes Moore (D, incumbent) vs Dan Cox (R). Also on the ballot: Andy Ellis, Cathy White
Last time
2022: Wes Moore (D) 64.5, Dan Cox (R) 32.1. Moore by 32.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 34.1, Harris 62.6. Harris by 28.5.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Solid D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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