Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Michigan ]

Michigan governor

Jocelyn Benson (D)vsJohn James (R)

open seat · Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

9 in 10

Jocelyn Benson favored94%

Very likely for Jocelyn Benson: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Jocelyn Benson up 7.7.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Lean D
  • Sabato:Lean D
  • Inside Elections:Tilt D
  • Odds:Benson 94%
  • Margin:Benson +8.9, give or take 4.5
  • Polls:39, averaging Benson +7.7
  • Latest poll:Wedgewood Polls, Oct 09, Benson +10.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Benson +8.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.5 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Benson +8.9
Uncertainty
4.5 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Benson +3.2 to Benson +14.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Benson +7.7 across 39 polls, worth 3.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Benson +11.6 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Benson ahead is positive, James ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 39 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R). Also on the ballot: Donna Brandenburg, Douglas Campbell, Anthony Hudson
Last time
2022: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 54.5, Tudor Dixon (R) 43.9. Whitmer by 10.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 49.7, Harris 48.3. Trump by 1.4.
The raters
Cook Lean D · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tilt D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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