Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // New Mexico ]

New Mexico governor

Deb Haaland (D)vsGregg Hull (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

9 in 10

Deb Haaland favored95%

Very likely for Deb Haaland: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Deb Haaland up 6.5.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid D
  • Sabato:Safe D
  • Inside Elections:Likely D
  • Odds:Haaland 95%
  • Margin:Haaland +10.9, give or take 5.4
  • Polls:5, averaging Haaland +6.5
  • Latest poll:Research & Polling Inc., Oct 09, Haaland +7.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Haaland +10.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Haaland +10.9
Uncertainty
5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Haaland +3.9 to Haaland +17.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Haaland +6.5 across 5 polls, worth 0.9 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Haaland +16.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Haaland ahead is positive, Hull ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Deb Haaland (D) vs Gregg Hull (R)
Last time
2022: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 52.0, Mark Ronchetti (R) 45.6. Grisham by 6.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.9, Harris 51.9. Harris by 6.0.
The raters
Cook Solid D · Sabato Safe D · Inside Elections Likely D

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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