Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Oklahoma ]

Oklahoma governor

Cyndi Munson (D)vsMike Mazzei (R)

open seat · Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Likely R

9 in 10

Mike Mazzei favored98%

All but certain for Mike Mazzei: a 98 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Likely R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Likely R
  • Odds:Mazzei 98%
  • Margin:Mazzei +19.1, give or take 8.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mazzei +19.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 8.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mazzei +19.1
Uncertainty
8.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mazzei +29.4 to Mazzei +8.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mazzei +19.1 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Munson ahead is positive, Mazzei ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Mazzei +19.1: the state's partisan lean, an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 8.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kevin Stitt (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Cyndi Munson (D) vs Mike Mazzei (R). Also on the ballot: Robert Brooks Sr., Orlando Bush, Jerry Griffin
Last time
2022: Kevin Stitt (R) 55.4, Joy Hofmeister (D) 41.8. Stitt by 13.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.2, Harris 31.9. Trump by 34.3.
The raters
Cook Likely R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Likely R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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