Wisconsin governor

David Crowley (D)vsTom Tiffany (R)

open seat · Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tossup

8 in 10

David Crowley favored85%

Likely for David Crowley: a 85 percent chance of winning. Polls: David Crowley up 3.6.

Office:Open seat
Cook:Tossup
Sabato:Lean D
Inside Elections:Tossup
Odds:Crowley 85%
Margin:Crowley +6.7, give or take 5.4
Polls:9, averaging Crowley +3.6
Latest poll:YouGov, Oct 09, Crowley +4.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Crowley +6.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.4 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Crowley +6.7
Uncertainty: 5.4 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Tiffany +0.3 to Crowley +13.7 (80 percent)
Poll average: Crowley +3.6 across 9 polls, worth 1.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Crowley +10.2 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Crowley ahead is positive, Tiffany ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 9 public polls

YouGovCrowley +4
Oct 09 · B · 1,715 RV46 to 42 · 70% weight
Partisan sponsoradjusted Crowley +3.8
Z to A ResearchCrowley +5
Oct 01 · unrated · 662 LV49 to 44 · 9% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Crowley +3.0
Marquette University Law SchoolCrowley +3
Sep 23 · A/B · 692 LV49 to 46 · 17% weight
Marquette University Law SchoolCrowley +5
Aug 20 · A/B · 738 LV49 to 44 · 2% weight
TIPP InsightsCrowley +3.4
Aug 18 · A · 1,187 LV47 to 43 · 1% weight
Republican sponsor
Platform CommunicationsCrowley +4
Aug 13 · unrated · 500 LV48 to 44 · 1% weight
GBAOCrowley +3
Aug 03 · B/C · 800 LV47 to 44 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Crowley +0.9
RMG ResearchCrowley +3
Jul 24 · B · 800 RV46 to 43 · 0% weight
TIPP InsightsCrowley +1.5
Mar 19 · A · 1,168 LV42 to 41 · 0% weight
Republican sponsor

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
YouGovPartisan sponsor	B	Oct 09	1,715RV	Crowley +446 to 42adjusted Crowley +3.8	70%
Z to A ResearchDemocratic sponsor	unrated	Oct 01	662LV	Crowley +549 to 44adjusted Crowley +3.0	9%
Marquette University Law School	A/B	Sep 23	692LV	Crowley +349 to 46	17%
Marquette University Law School	A/B	Aug 20	738LV	Crowley +549 to 44	2%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	Aug 18	1,187LV	Crowley +3.447 to 43	1%
Platform Communications	unrated	Aug 13	500LV	Crowley +448 to 44	1%
GBAODemocratic sponsor	B/C	Aug 03	800LV	Crowley +347 to 44adjusted Crowley +0.9	0%
RMG Research	B	Jul 24	800RV	Crowley +346 to 43	0%
TIPP InsightsRepublican sponsor	A	Mar 19	1,168LV	Crowley +1.542 to 41	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Tony Evers (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot: David Crowley (D) vs Tom Tiffany (R)
Last time: 2022: Tony Evers (D) 51.2, Tim Michels (R) 47.8. Evers by 3.4.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 49.6, Harris 48.7. Trump by 0.9.
The raters: Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
David Crowley
Crowley on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Tom Tiffany
Tiffany on Ballotpedia ↗

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