Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Wyoming ]

Wyoming governor

Kenneth Casner (D)vsEric Barlow (R)

open seat · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Eric Barlow favored>99%

All but certain for Eric Barlow: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Office:Open seat
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Barlow >99%
  • Margin:Barlow +38.9, give or take 8.0
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Barlow +38.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 8.0 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Barlow +38.9
Uncertainty
8.0 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Barlow +49.2 to Barlow +28.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Barlow +38.9 before any polls, give or take 8.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Casner ahead is positive, Barlow ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the model's starting point for the state, Barlow +38.9: the state's partisan lean, an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2). The uncertainty is 8.0 points until polls arrive.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mark Gordon (R) is term limited. Open seat.
On the ballot
Kenneth Casner (D) vs Eric Barlow (R). Also on the ballot: Joseph Kibler
Last time
2022: Mark Gordon (R) 74.1, Theresa Livingston (D) 15.8. Gordon by 58.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 71.6, Harris 25.8. Trump by 45.8.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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