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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IA-01 ]

Iowa's 1st District

Christina Bohannan (D)vsMariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

6 in 10

Christina Bohannan favored56%

A slight edge for Christina Bohannan: a 56 percent chance of winning. Polls: Christina Bohannan up 5.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
  • District:1 of 4 in Iowa
  • Odds:Bohannan 56%
  • Margin:Bohannan +1.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Bohannan +5.0
  • Latest poll:The Bullfinch Group, Jul 16, Bohannan +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bohannan +1.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bohannan +1.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Miller-Meeks +5.1 to Bohannan +7.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Bohannan +5.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Miller-Meeks +1.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bohannan ahead is positive, Miller-Meeks ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • The Bullfinch GroupBohannan +5
    Jul 16 · unrated · 705 LV40 to 35 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsor
  • Public Policy PollingBohannan +4
    Jun 19 · B+ · 555 RV43 to 39 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bohannan +0.1

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 49.9, Republican 50.1. Miller-Meeks by 0.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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