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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IA-03 ]

Iowa's 3rd District

Sarah Trone Garriott (D)vsZach Nunn (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+2 · Incumbent: Zach Nunn (R)

6 in 10

Sarah Trone Garriott favored63%

A slight edge for Sarah Trone Garriott: a 63 percent chance of winning. Polls: Sarah Trone Garriott up 2.7.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+2
  • Incumbent:Zach Nunn (R)
  • District:3 of 4 in Iowa
  • Odds:Garriott 63%
  • Margin:Garriott +2.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Garriott +2.7
  • Latest poll:Ragnar Research Partners, Mar 14, Nunn +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garriott +2.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garriott +2.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Nunn +4.0 to Garriott +8.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Garriott +2.7 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Garriott +1.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Garriott ahead is positive, Nunn ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Ragnar Research PartnersNunn +1
    Mar 14 · B/C · 400 LV43 to 44 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Garriott +2.7
  • Change ResearchGarriott +3
    Oct 27 · C+ · 638 LV45 to 42 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Nunn +2.8
  • Public Policy PollingTie
    Sep 18 · B+ · 717 RV44 to 44 · 0% weight
    adjusted Garriott +0.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Zach Nunn (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.1, Republican 51.9. Nunn by 3.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 55.7, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.2.
Lean
R+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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