Live results here election night Nov 3 · 5 days
● House // Race file
[ House // KS-02 ]
Kansas's 2nd District
Don Coover (D)vsDerek Schmidt (R)
incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Derek Schmidt (R)
Democrat
Republican
94 in 100
Derek Schmidt favored94%
Very likely for Derek Schmidt: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Derek Schmidt up 6.2.
- Margin:Schmidt +9.5, give or take 6.2
- Polls:1, averaging Schmidt +6.2
- Latest poll:DCCC Targeting Team, Oct 20, Schmidt +3.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- District:2 of 4 in Kansas
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Schmidt +9.5
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points, counting a miss the whole country, or one state, could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Schmidt +9.5
- Uncertainty
- give or take 6.2 points: 4.6 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share, plus about 2.0 that the districts in one state could share
- Eight times in ten
- Schmidt +17.5 to Schmidt +1.5
- Poll average
- Schmidt +6.2 across 1 poll, about as much information as 1 fresh poll
- Starting point
- Schmidt +12.2 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Coover ahead is positive, Schmidt ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Schmidt 94 in 100
margin Schmidt +9.5
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // 1 public poll
- DCCC Targeting TeamSchmidt +3Oct 20 · B/C · 639 LV46 to 49 · 100% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Schmidt +6.2
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Oct 20 | 639LV | Schmidt +346 to 49adjusted Schmidt +6.2 | 100% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
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▸ Campaign money // FEC filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures
Loading the disclosure links.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Derek Schmidt (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Don Coover (D) vs Derek Schmidt (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 38.2, Republican 57.1. Schmidt by 18.9.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 57.2, Harris 41.0. Trump by 16.1.
- Lean
- R+10 by the Cook partisan index
- The raters
- Cook Likely R · Sabato Likely R · Inside Elections Solid R
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Don CooverDon Coover grew up the second of seven children on a small southeast Kansas farm.
Republican
Derek SchmidtDerek Schmidt grew up in Independence and first studied journalism, then international politics and law.
▸ The closest House races // Nearest a coin flip
House
Wisconsin's 3rd District
A coin flip · Cooke vs Van Orden
House
Pennsylvania's 8th District
A coin flip · Cognetti vs Bresnahan
House
Wisconsin's 1st District
A coin flip · Berman vs Steil
The three House races nearest a coin flip today.