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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // PA-08 ]

Pennsylvania's 8th District

Paige Cognetti (D)vsRob Bresnahan (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan (R)

6 in 10

Rob Bresnahan favored59%

A slight edge for Rob Bresnahan: a 59 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Rob Bresnahan (R)
  • District:8 of 17 in Pennsylvania
  • Odds:Bresnahan 59%
  • Margin:Bresnahan +1.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Bresnahan +1.1
  • Latest poll:Lake Research Partners, Jun 23, Cognetti +2.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bresnahan +1.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bresnahan +1.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bresnahan +7.6 to Cognetti +4.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Bresnahan +1.1 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Bresnahan +1.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Cognetti ahead is positive, Bresnahan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Lake Research PartnersCognetti +2
    Jun 23 · A/B · 400 LV47 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bresnahan +0.6
  • Impact ResearchCognetti +1
    Jun 11 · B/C · 500 LV46 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bresnahan +2.3
  • Public Policy PollingCognetti +2
    Aug 28 · B+ · 615 RV45 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Bresnahan +1.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rob Bresnahan (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 49.2, Republican 50.8. Bresnahan by 1.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.4, Harris 48.7. Trump by 1.7.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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