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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // KS-01 ]

Kansas's 1st District

Lauren Reinhold (D)vsTracey Mann (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+16 · Incumbent: Tracey Mann (R)

99 in 100

Tracey Mann favored>99%

All but certain for Tracey Mann: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+16
  • Incumbent:Tracey Mann (R)
  • District:1 of 4 in Kansas
  • Odds:Mann >99%
  • Margin:Mann +22.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mann +22.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mann +22.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mann +30.6 to Mann +14.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mann +22.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Reinhold ahead is positive, Mann ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+16, worth 27.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Tracey Mann, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mann +22.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tracey Mann (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lauren Reinhold (D) vs Tracey Mann (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 30.9, Republican 69.1. Mann by 38.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 57.2, Harris 41.0. Trump by 16.1.
Lean
R+16 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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