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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NE-01 ]

Nebraska's 1st District

Chris Backemeyer (D)vsMike Flood (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Mike Flood (R)

7 in 10

Mike Flood favored74%

Likely for Mike Flood: a 74 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Flood up 2.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Mike Flood (R)
  • District:1 of 3 in Nebraska
  • Odds:Flood 74%
  • Margin:Flood +4.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Flood +2.1
  • Latest poll:Global Strategy Group, Sep 03, Backemeyer +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Flood +4.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Flood +4.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Flood +10.1 to Backemeyer +2.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Flood +2.1 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Flood +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Backemeyer ahead is positive, Flood ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Global Strategy GroupBackemeyer +1
    Sep 03 · B/C · 600 LV43 to 42 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Flood +2.1
  • Zenith ResearchFlood +7
    May 11 · unrated · 401 RV38 to 45 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsor

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Flood (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.9, Republican 60.1. Flood by 20.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 59.3, Harris 38.9. Trump by 20.5.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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