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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // RI-01 ]

Rhode Island's 1st District

Gabe Amo (D)vsKellie Keenan (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: Gabe Amo (D)

99 in 100

Gabe Amo favored>99%

All but certain for Gabe Amo: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Gabe Amo up 28.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:Gabe Amo (D)
  • District:1 of 2 in Rhode Island
  • Odds:Amo >99%
  • Margin:Amo +32.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Amo +28.1
  • Latest poll:Emerson College, Oct 11, Amo +28.1
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Amo +32.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Amo +32.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Amo +26.4 to Amo +38.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Amo +28.1 across 1 poll, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Amo +35.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Amo ahead is positive, Keenan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gabe Amo (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Gabe Amo (D, incumbent) vs Kellie Keenan (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 63.2, Republican 32.1. Amo by 31.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.8, Harris 55.5. Harris by 13.8.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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