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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AR-03 ]

Arkansas's 3rd District

Robb Ryerse (D)vsSteve Womack (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: Steve Womack (R)

99 in 100

Steve Womack favored>99%

All but certain for Steve Womack: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:Steve Womack (R)
  • District:3 of 4 in Arkansas
  • Odds:Womack >99%
  • Margin:Womack +17.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Womack +17.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Womack +17.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Womack +25.4 to Womack +9.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Womack +17.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ryerse ahead is positive, Womack ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Steve Womack, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Womack +17.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Steve Womack (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Robb Ryerse (D) vs Steve Womack (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.8, Republican 63.8. Womack by 32.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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