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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AR-01 ]

Arkansas's 1st District

Terri Green (D)vsRick Crawford (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+23 · Incumbent: Rick Crawford (R)

99 in 100

Rick Crawford favored>99%

All but certain for Rick Crawford: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+23
  • Incumbent:Rick Crawford (R)
  • District:1 of 4 in Arkansas
  • Odds:Crawford >99%
  • Margin:Crawford +34.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Crawford +34.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Crawford +34.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Crawford +42.8 to Crawford +27.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Crawford +34.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Green ahead is positive, Crawford ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+23, worth 40.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Rick Crawford, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Crawford +34.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Rick Crawford (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Terri Green (D) vs Rick Crawford (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 24.0, Republican 72.9. Crawford by 48.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
Lean
R+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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