Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // AR-04 ]

Arkansas's 4th District

James Russell (D)vsBruce Westerman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+20 · Incumbent: Bruce Westerman (R)

99 in 100

Bruce Westerman favored>99%

All but certain for Bruce Westerman: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+20
  • Incumbent:Bruce Westerman (R)
  • District:4 of 4 in Arkansas
  • Odds:Westerman >99%
  • Margin:Westerman +29.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Westerman +29.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Westerman +29.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Westerman +37.5 to Westerman +21.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Westerman +29.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Russell ahead is positive, Westerman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+20, worth 34.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Bruce Westerman, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Westerman +29.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Bruce Westerman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
James Russell (D) vs Bruce Westerman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 27.1, Republican 72.9. Westerman by 45.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
Lean
R+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats