Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CT-01 ]

Connecticut's 1st District

Luke Bronin (D)vsAmy Chai (R)

open seat · Lean: D+12 · Incumbent: John B. Larson (D), not running

99 in 100

Luke Bronin favored>99%

All but certain for Luke Bronin: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+12
  • Incumbent:John B. Larson (D), not running
  • District:1 of 5 in Connecticut
  • Odds:Bronin >99%
  • Margin:Bronin +30.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bronin +30.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bronin +30.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bronin +22.9 to Bronin +38.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bronin +30.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bronin ahead is positive, Chai ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+12, worth 20.9 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bronin +30.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John B. Larson (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Luke Bronin (D) vs Amy Chai (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 63.1, Republican 34.8. Larson by 28.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.9, Harris 56.4. Harris by 14.5.
Lean
D+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats