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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CT-05 ]

Connecticut's 5th District

Jahana Hayes (D)vsChris Shea (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D)

99 in 100

Jahana Hayes favored>99%

All but certain for Jahana Hayes: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Jahana Hayes (D)
  • District:5 of 5 in Connecticut
  • Odds:Hayes >99%
  • Margin:Hayes +19.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hayes +19.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hayes +19.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hayes +12.0 to Hayes +27.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hayes +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hayes ahead is positive, Shea ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+3, worth 5.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jahana Hayes, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Hayes +19.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jahana Hayes (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jahana Hayes (D, incumbent) vs Chris Shea (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 53.4, Republican 46.6. Hayes by 6.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.9, Harris 56.4. Harris by 14.5.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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