Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // CT-04 ]

Connecticut's 4th District

Jim Himes (D)vsMichael Goldstein (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Jim Himes (D)

99 in 100

Jim Himes favored>99%

All but certain for Jim Himes: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Jim Himes (D)
  • District:4 of 5 in Connecticut
  • Odds:Himes >99%
  • Margin:Himes +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Himes +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Himes +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Himes +29.4 to Himes +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Himes +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Himes ahead is positive, Goldstein ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Jim Himes, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Himes +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jim Himes (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jim Himes (D, incumbent) vs Michael Goldstein (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 61.1, Republican 37.3. Himes by 23.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.9, Harris 56.4. Harris by 14.5.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats