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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MS-01 ]

Mississippi's 1st District

Cliff Johnson (D)vsTrent Kelly (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+18 · Incumbent: Trent Kelly (R)

99 in 100

Trent Kelly favored>99%

All but certain for Trent Kelly: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+18
  • Incumbent:Trent Kelly (R)
  • District:1 of 4 in Mississippi
  • Odds:Kelly >99%
  • Margin:Kelly +26.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Kelly +26.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Kelly +26.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Kelly +34.1 to Kelly +18.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Kelly +26.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Johnson ahead is positive, Kelly ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+18, worth 31.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Trent Kelly, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Kelly +26.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Trent Kelly (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Cliff Johnson (D) vs Trent Kelly (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 30.2, Republican 69.8. Kelly by 39.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.9, Harris 38.0. Trump by 22.9.
Lean
R+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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