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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MS-04 ]

Mississippi's 4th District

Jeffrey Hulum III (D)vsMike Ezell (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: Mike Ezell (R)

99 in 100

Mike Ezell favored>99%

All but certain for Mike Ezell: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:Mike Ezell (R)
  • District:4 of 4 in Mississippi
  • Odds:Ezell >99%
  • Margin:Ezell +31.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ezell +31.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ezell +31.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ezell +39.3 to Ezell +23.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Ezell +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hulum ahead is positive, Ezell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+21, worth 36.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mike Ezell, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Ezell +31.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Ezell (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jeffrey Hulum III (D) vs Mike Ezell (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 26.1, Republican 74.0. Ezell by 47.9.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.9, Harris 38.0. Trump by 22.9.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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