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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // MS-03 ]

Mississippi's 3rd District

Michael Chiaradio (D)vsMichael Guest (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+14 · Incumbent: Michael Guest (R)

99 in 100

Michael Guest favored>99%

All but certain for Michael Guest: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+14
  • Incumbent:Michael Guest (R)
  • District:3 of 4 in Mississippi
  • Odds:Guest >99%
  • Margin:Guest +19.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Guest +19.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Guest +19.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Guest +27.1 to Guest +11.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Guest +19.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Chiaradio ahead is positive, Guest ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+14, worth 24.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Michael Guest, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Guest +19.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Michael Guest (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Michael Chiaradio (D) vs Michael Guest (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Michael Guest (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 60.9, Harris 38.0. Trump by 22.9.
Lean
R+14 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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