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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OR-01 ]

Oregon's 1st District

Suzanne Bonamici (D)vsBarbara Kahl (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+20 · Incumbent: Suzanne Bonamici (D)

99 in 100

Suzanne Bonamici favored>99%

All but certain for Suzanne Bonamici: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+20
  • Incumbent:Suzanne Bonamici (D)
  • District:1 of 6 in Oregon
  • Odds:Bonamici >99%
  • Margin:Bonamici +49.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bonamici +49.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bonamici +49.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bonamici +41.6 to Bonamici +57.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bonamici +49.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bonamici ahead is positive, Kahl ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+20, worth 34.8 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Suzanne Bonamici, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bonamici +49.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Suzanne Bonamici (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Suzanne Bonamici (D, incumbent) vs Barbara Kahl (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 68.8, Republican 28.2. Bonamici by 40.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.0, Harris 55.3. Harris by 14.3.
Lean
D+20 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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