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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OR-02 ]

Oregon's 2nd District

Chris Beck (D)vsCliff Bentz (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+14 · Incumbent: Cliff Bentz (R)

99 in 100

Cliff Bentz favored>99%

All but certain for Cliff Bentz: a 99 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+14
  • Incumbent:Cliff Bentz (R)
  • District:2 of 6 in Oregon
  • Odds:Bentz >99%
  • Margin:Bentz +19.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bentz +19.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bentz +19.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bentz +27.1 to Bentz +11.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bentz +19.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Beck ahead is positive, Bentz ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+14, worth 24.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Cliff Bentz, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bentz +19.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Cliff Bentz (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Beck (D) vs Cliff Bentz (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 32.8, Republican 64.0. Bentz by 31.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.0, Harris 55.3. Harris by 14.3.
Lean
R+14 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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