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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // OR-04 ]

Oregon's 4th District

Val Hoyle (D)vsMonique DeSpain (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+6 · Incumbent: Val Hoyle (D)

99 in 100

Val Hoyle favored>99%

All but certain for Val Hoyle: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+6
  • Incumbent:Val Hoyle (D)
  • District:4 of 6 in Oregon
  • Odds:Hoyle >99%
  • Margin:Hoyle +25.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hoyle +25.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hoyle +25.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hoyle +17.2 to Hoyle +33.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hoyle +25.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hoyle ahead is positive, DeSpain ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+6, worth 10.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Val Hoyle, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Hoyle +25.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Val Hoyle (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Val Hoyle (D, incumbent) vs Monique DeSpain (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.8, Republican 44.0. Hoyle by 7.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 41.0, Harris 55.3. Harris by 14.3.
Lean
D+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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