Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● Governor // Race file

[ Governor // Idaho ]

Idaho governor

Terri Pickens (D)vsBrad Little (R)

incumbent running · Cook: Solid R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Solid R

99 in 100

Brad Little favored>99%

All but certain for Brad Little: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Brad Little up 23.6.

  • Office:Incumbent running
  • Cook:Solid R
  • Sabato:Safe R
  • Inside Elections:Solid R
  • Odds:Little >99%
  • Margin:Little +26.7, give or take 5.1
  • Polls:1, averaging Little +23.6
  • Latest poll:Change Research, Jul 30, Little +21.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Little +26.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 5.1 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Little +26.7
Uncertainty
5.1 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Little +33.2 to Little +20.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Little +23.6 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Little +29.5 before any polls, give or take 7.0

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pickens ahead is positive, Little ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Change ResearchLittle +21
    Jul 30 · C+ · 1,213 LV27 to 48 · 0% weight
    Independent sponsoradjusted Little +23.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Brad Little (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Terri Pickens (D) vs Brad Little (R, incumbent). Also on the ballot: Pro-Life, Paul Sand, John Stegner
Last time
2022: Brad Little (R) 60.5, Stephen Heidt (D) 20.3. Little by 40.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 66.9, Harris 30.4. Trump by 36.5.
The raters
Cook Solid R · Sabato Safe R · Inside Elections Solid R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The race on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ The rules // Governors

Senate rules, unchanged
This number comes from the same polling average, fundamentals, blend and error sizes as the Senate races, with the state's last governor election in place of the last Senate result. Governor results track presidential lean less tightly than Senate results, so the fundamentals can miss where a popular incumbent crosses party lines. There is no governor backtest yet. The rules on the math page.

▸ Candidates // Read more

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