Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AR-02 ]

Arkansas's 2nd District

Chris Jones (D)vsFrench Hill (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: French Hill (R)

7 in 10

French Hill favored71%

Likely for French Hill: a 71 percent chance of winning. Polls: Chris Jones up 4.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:French Hill (R)
  • District:2 of 4 in Arkansas
  • Odds:Hill 71%
  • Margin:Hill +3.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Jones +4.0
  • Latest poll:Hendrix College, Aug 12, Jones +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hill +3.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hill +3.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hill +9.6 to Jones +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Jones +4.0 across 2 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hill +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jones ahead is positive, Hill ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Hendrix CollegeJones +4
    Aug 12 · B/C · 1,112 LV48 to 44 · 100% weight
  • 2040 Strategy GroupJones +3
    May 08 · unrated46 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hill +1.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
French Hill (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Jones (D) vs French Hill (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 41.1, Republican 58.9. Hill by 17.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.2, Harris 33.6. Trump by 30.6.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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