Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // FL-13 ]

Florida's 13th District

Leela Gray (D)vsAnna Paulina Luna (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Anna Paulina Luna (R)

8 in 10

Anna Paulina Luna favored76%

Likely for Anna Paulina Luna: a 76 percent chance of winning. Polls: Anna Paulina Luna up 3.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Anna Paulina Luna (R)
  • District:13 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Luna 76%
  • Margin:Luna +4.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:4, averaging Luna +3.1
  • Latest poll:Hart Research Associates, Aug 27, Gray +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Luna +4.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Luna +4.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Luna +10.5 to Gray +1.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Luna +3.1 across 4 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Luna +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gray ahead is positive, Luna ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

  • Hart Research AssociatesGray +1
    Aug 27 · A-44 to 43 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Luna +2.4
  • Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesLuna +8
    Aug 06 · A/B · 400 LV41 to 49 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Luna +3.5
  • GQRLuna +3
    Aug 06 · A- · 500 LV44 to 47 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Luna +5.3
  • Public Policy PollingLuna +2
    May 20 · B+ · 616 RV39 to 41 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Luna +5.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Anna Paulina Luna (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Leela Gray (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 45.2, Republican 54.8. Luna by 9.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats