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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-08 ]

Florida's 8th District

Jennifer Jenkins (D)vsMike Haridopolos (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Mike Haridopolos (R)

9 in 10

Mike Haridopolos favored95%

Very likely for Mike Haridopolos: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Mike Haridopolos up 12.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Mike Haridopolos (R)
  • District:8 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Haridopolos 95%
  • Margin:Haridopolos +10.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Haridopolos +12.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Jul 18, Haridopolos +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Haridopolos +10.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Haridopolos +10.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Haridopolos +16.6 to Haridopolos +4.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Haridopolos +12.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Haridopolos +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jenkins ahead is positive, Haridopolos ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingHaridopolos +9
    Jul 18 · B+ · 633 RV35 to 44 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Haridopolos +12.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Haridopolos (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jennifer Jenkins (D) vs Mike Haridopolos (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.8, Republican 62.2. Haridopolos by 24.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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