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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-02 ]

Florida's 2nd District

Amanda Green (D)vsAustin Rogers (R)

open seat · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Neal Dunn (R), not running

9 in 10

Austin Rogers favored97%

Very likely for Austin Rogers: a 97 percent chance of winning. Polls: Austin Rogers up 22.6.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Neal Dunn (R), not running
  • District:2 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Rogers 97%
  • Margin:Rogers +11.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Rogers +22.6
  • Latest poll:Patriot Polling, Jul 26, Rogers +27.1
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rogers +11.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rogers +11.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rogers +17.8 to Rogers +5.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Rogers +22.6 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Rogers +4.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Green ahead is positive, Rogers ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Patriot PollingRogers +27.1
    Jul 26 · B · 922 LV35 to 62 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Rogers +22.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Neal Dunn (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amanda Green (D) vs Austin Rogers (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.4, Republican 61.6. Dunn by 23.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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