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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-05 ]

Florida's 5th District

Rachel Grage (D)vsJohn Rutherford (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: John Rutherford (R)

9 in 10

John Rutherford favored95%

Very likely for John Rutherford: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:John Rutherford (R)
  • District:5 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Rutherford 95%
  • Margin:Rutherford +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rutherford +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rutherford +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rutherford +20.1 to Rutherford +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Rutherford +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Grage ahead is positive, Rutherford ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (John Rutherford, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Rutherford +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Rutherford (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Rachel Grage (D) vs John Rutherford (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.9, Republican 63.1. Rutherford by 26.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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