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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // FL-27 ]

Florida's 27th District

Eliott Rodriguez (D)vsMaría Elvira Salazar (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: María Elvira Salazar (R)

8 in 10

María Elvira Salazar favored80%

Likely for María Elvira Salazar: a 80 percent chance of winning. Polls: María Elvira Salazar up 5.1.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:María Elvira Salazar (R)
  • District:27 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Salazar 80%
  • Margin:Salazar +5.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Salazar +5.1
  • Latest poll:Tulchin Research, Sep 13, Salazar +1.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Salazar +5.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Salazar +5.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Salazar +11.3 to Rodriguez +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
Salazar +5.1 across 2 polls, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Salazar +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Rodriguez ahead is positive, Salazar ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
María Elvira Salazar (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.6, Republican 60.4. Salazar by 20.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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