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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NM-03 ]

New Mexico's 3rd District

Teresa Leger Fernández (D)vsMartin Zamora (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+3 · Incumbent: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)

99 in 100

Teresa Leger Fernández favored>99%

All but certain for Teresa Leger Fernández: a 100 percent chance of winning. Polls: Teresa Leger Fernández up 14.0.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+3
  • Incumbent:Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
  • District:3 of 3 in New Mexico
  • Odds:Fernández >99%
  • Margin:Fernández +17.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Fernández +14.0
  • Latest poll:Research & Polling Inc., Oct 09, Fernández +14.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fernández +17.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fernández +17.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fernández +11.4 to Fernández +23.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Fernández +14.0 across 1 poll, worth 0.5 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Fernández +19.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Fernández ahead is positive, Zamora ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Teresa Leger Fernández (D) vs Martin Zamora (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 56.3, Republican 43.7. Fernandez by 12.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 45.9, Harris 51.9. Harris by 6.0.
Lean
D+3 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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