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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AL-01 ]

Alabama's 1st District

Clyde Jones Jr. (D)vsJerry Carl (R)

open seat · Lean: R+17 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

99 in 100

Jerry Carl favored>99%

All but certain for Jerry Carl: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+17
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:1 of 7 in Alabama
  • Odds:Carl >99%
  • Margin:Carl +19.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Carl +19.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Carl +19.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Carl +27.6 to Carl +11.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Carl +19.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jones ahead is positive, Carl ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+17, worth 29.6 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Carl +19.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Clyde Jones Jr. (D) vs Jerry Carl (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 21.5, Republican 78.5. Republican by 57.0. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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