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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AL-02 ]

Alabama's 2nd District

Shomari Figures (D)vsRhett Marques (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Shomari Figures (D)

a coin flip

Too close to call52%

The model gives Shomari Figures a 48 percent chance and Rhett Marques 52 percent. Inside five points either way the model does not name a favorite. Polls: Rhett Marques up 4.2.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Shomari Figures (D)
  • District:2 of 7 in Alabama
  • Odds:a coin flip, Marques 52%
  • Margin:Marques +0.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Marques +4.2
  • Latest poll:Tulchin Research, Aug 31, tied
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Marques +0.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Marques +0.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Marques +6.4 to Figures +5.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Marques +4.2 across 3 polls, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Figures +2.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Figures ahead is positive, Marques ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

  • Tulchin ResearchTie
    Aug 31 · B/C47 to 47 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Marques +4.4
  • DCCC Targeting TeamTie
    Jul 30 · B/C · 421 LV46 to 46 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Marques +2.6
  • Impact ResearchMarques +1
    Jun 25 · B/C · 400 LV44 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Marques +4.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Shomari Figures (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Shomari Figures (D, incumbent) vs Rhett Marques (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.6, Republican 45.4. Figures by 9.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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