Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // AL-04 ]

Alabama's 4th District

Amanda Pusczek (D)vsRobert Aderholt (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+33 · Incumbent: Robert Aderholt (R)

99 in 100

Robert Aderholt favored>99%

All but certain for Robert Aderholt: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+33
  • Incumbent:Robert Aderholt (R)
  • District:4 of 7 in Alabama
  • Odds:Aderholt >99%
  • Margin:Aderholt +52.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Aderholt +52.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Aderholt +52.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Aderholt +60.2 to Aderholt +44.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Aderholt +52.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pusczek ahead is positive, Aderholt ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+33, worth 57.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Robert Aderholt, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Aderholt +52.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Robert Aderholt (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Amanda Pusczek (D) vs Robert Aderholt (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Robert Aderholt (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 64.6, Harris 34.1. Trump by 30.5.
Lean
R+33 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats