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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // FL-11 ]

Florida's 11th District

James Pericola (D)vsJoe Strada (R)

open seat · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Daniel Webster (R), not running

7 in 10

Joe Strada favored70%

Likely for Joe Strada: a 70 percent chance of winning. Polls: Joe Strada up 4.8.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:Daniel Webster (R), not running
  • District:11 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Strada 70%
  • Margin:Strada +3.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Strada +4.8
  • Latest poll:MDW Communications, Jul 30, Strada +0.3
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Strada +3.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Strada +3.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Strada +9.4 to Pericola +2.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Strada +4.8 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Strada +2.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pericola ahead is positive, Strada ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • MDW CommunicationsStrada +0.3
    Jul 30 · unrated · 1,044 LV42 to 42 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Strada +4.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Daniel Webster (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
James Pericola (D) vs Joe Strada (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.6, Republican 60.4. Webster by 20.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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