Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // FL-16 ]

Florida's 16th District

Kelly Kirschner (D)vsSydney Gruters (R)

open seat · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Vern Buchanan (R), not running

7 in 10

Sydney Gruters favored71%

Likely for Sydney Gruters: a 71 percent chance of winning. Polls: Sydney Gruters up 7.6.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Vern Buchanan (R), not running
  • District:16 of 28 in Florida
  • Odds:Gruters 71%
  • Margin:Gruters +3.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Gruters +7.6
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Oct 02, Gruters +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gruters +3.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gruters +3.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gruters +9.6 to Kirschner +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Gruters +7.6 across 2 polls, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Gruters +0.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Kirschner ahead is positive, Gruters ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

  • Public Policy PollingGruters +4
    Oct 02 · B+ · 530 RV39 to 43 · 93% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Gruters +7.9
  • SEA PollingKirschner +1
    Aug 29 · unrated · 400 LV40 to 39 · 7% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Gruters +3.5

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Vern Buchanan (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Kelly Kirschner (D) vs Sydney Gruters (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.5, Republican 59.5. Buchanan by 19.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 43.0. Trump by 13.1.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats